Dave Sohigian

4Jun/090

Ray Kurzweil Keeps On Talking About the Singularity

Although I find Kurzweil's insights when it comes to alternative (in this case, exponential) thinking, he has been wrong about the consequences of his predictions at almost every turn. Some samples of his predictions for 2009 (from his 1999 book, The Age of Spiritual Machines) :

"The majority of text is created using continuous speech recognition."
"Most routine business transactions (purchases, travel, reservation) take place between a human and a virtual personality. Often, the virtual personality includes an animated visual presence that looks like a human face"
"Human musicians routinely jam with cybernetic musicians"
"[technology for handicapped individuals] result in a growing perception that primary disabilities do not necessarily impart handicaps"
"The neo-Luddite movement is growing"

His predictions for the performance and capabilities of technology are good, but I would not trust his ideas about what we will do with all that performance and technology.


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